Why a US-Russia showdown left Morocco celebrating

Western Sahara, on Africa's north-west coast, was a Spanish colony until 1975. It has significant phosphate reserves and valuable fishing grounds along its Atlantic coast.

As Spain prepared to withdraw, both Morocco and Mauritania claimed the territory.

The International Court of Justice found historical ties of allegiance but no territorial sovereignty that overrode the Sahrawi people's right to self-determination.

Morocco's then King Hassan II responded by organising the Green March. On 6 November 1975 about 350,000 Moroccan civilians entered the territory in a mass demonstration intended to put pressure on Spain.

Days later, Spain signed the Madrid Accords with Morocco and Mauritania, agreeing to transfer administrative control. Morocco took the northern two-thirds and Mauritania the southern third. The agreement did not settle the question of sovereignty.

The Polisario Front, an independence movement founded in 1973, opposed the deal. It saw it as replacing Spanish colonial rule with Moroccan and Mauritanian control.

Mauritania renounced its claim in 1979, but Morocco continued fighting Polisario.

Morocco's royal palace welcomed the failure to renew Minurso's mandate.

In Laayoune, the territory's largest city, footage showed people celebrating, waving Moroccan flags and displaying portraits of King Mohammed VI.

"The decision is an opportunity for Rabat to challenge what it sees as an international mechanism that has failed to resolve the dispute," Issam Laaroussi, a Moroccan expert in international relations, tells the BBC.

He said Morocco would now have more room to push its autonomy proposal and shift negotiations away from a referendum on independence towards autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty.

The decision does not, however, change Western Sahara's legal status or amount to international recognition of Moroccan sovereignty.

Western Sahara remains on the UN list of non-self-governing territories, while the African Union officially recognises its independence, as the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).

But the decision comes after several countries backed the position of Morocco, which in recent years has made securing international support for its claim a central part of its foreign policy.

In 2020, the US recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara as part of an agreement to establish diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel.

France also backed Morocco's autonomy plan as the basis for resolving the dispute in 2024.

The fear is that Minurso's departure could lead to renewed fighting.

The mission has monitored military developments and helped reduce the risk of escalation.

Aid organisation Oxfam warned that losing its monitoring and de-escalation role could undermine stability, with serious consequences for civilians.

Laaroussi admits that the mission's departure could create security gaps.

"Minurso's departure does not create the original conflict, because the conflict is already there, but it could aggravate an already fragile security environment," he says.

The UN decision has also fuelled nationalist rhetoric online.

Several Moroccan users have shared AI-generated images of themselves in military uniform, declaring their readiness to fight for Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara.

In Morocco, Western Sahara is widely regarded as a national cause. Political parties that are often divided on other issues are united in supporting the country's claim to sovereignty over the territory.

Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita has said the end of the mission does not mean the end of the ceasefire, and that Rabat remains committed to it "within respect of its security and sovereignty."

Polisario has not said what it will do next.

Any resumption of fighting could well draw in Algeria, as tensions with Morocco remain high.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), both countries significantly increased military spending last year, with SIPRI citing their dispute over Western Sahara as a key driver.

Algeria spent an estimated $25.4bn, more than four time Morocco's $6.3bn.