SHOCK POLL: Powerful blue state gov's lead shrinks to single digits weeks before election

Democrats outnumber Republicans by a roughly two-to-one margin in blue-leaning New York State, but a new poll indicates Republican gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman has cut his deficit to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul to single digits with just six weeks to go until Election Day.

Hochul, who is running for a second full four-year term steering the nation's fourth most populous state, stands at 50% support among likely voters in New York, with Blakeman at 41%, according to a Siena College poll conducted Sept. 11-17 and released on Wednesday.

Blakeman, the Nassau County executive on New York's Long Island, trailed Hochul by 10 points in Siena's August survey. The one-point movement by Blakeman, who is aiming to become the first Republican in nearly a quarter-century to win an election for governor in New York, is within the survey's margin of error.

"With six weeks until election day, voters offer good news to both Hochul and Blakeman. She now has the support of 50% of voters and saw her favorability and job approval ratings edge into positive territory. He now trails by single digits – well, nine points – in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one," Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.

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Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, left, and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul. Blakeman, the GOP gubernatorial nominee, is challenging Hochul, a Democrat, in the 2026 election. (NDZ/Star Max/GC Images/Getty Images; Alexander MacDougall/Albany Times Union via Getty Images)

Greenberg noted that at this point four years ago, Hochul held a 17-point lead over then-Rep. Lee Zeldin, the GOP nominee. But Zeldin closed the gap and ended up losing to Hochul by only six points in the 2022 election.

"Currently, Blakeman is doing a better job with Republicans, leading 88-8%, than Hochul is with Democrats, leading 81-11%," Greenberg added.

The GOP nominee is also edging Hochul 44%-39% among independent voters.

"All polls continue to show Kathy Hochul's downward spiral and me closing the gap as New Yorkers learn more about my plan to cut income taxes by historic margins and slash electric bills in half," Blakeman argued in a statement after the release of the Siena poll.

But the new poll indicates that two-thirds of New York State voters, including 37% of Republicans, think Hochul will win re-election.

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Bruce Blakeman, Nassau County executive and Republican candidate for New York governor, received President Donald Trump's endorsement earlier this year. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Blakeman is a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, who in February endorsed his bid for governor. But Trump's support may be doing Blakeman no favors, with half of likely voters, including a quarter of Republicans, saying it's a negative for the GOP nominee's campaign.

Hochul was endorsed earlier this year by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, the first socialist mayor of the nation's most populous city, reciprocating her backing during his own historic mayoral run last year.

By a 50%-30% margin, voters said Mamdani's support for Hochul is a plus for the governor's bid for re-election.

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New York Gov. Kathy Hochul listens as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani speaks during the annual New York State Financial Control Board meeting on Aug. 12, 2026, in New York City. Mamdani earlier this year endorsed Hochul's re-election bid. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Then-Lt. Gov. Hochul was sworn in as New York’s first female governor in August 2021 after Gov. Andrew Cuomo, in the middle of his third term, resigned amid multiple scandals.

Hochul has seen her political standing rise over the past year and a half as she's increased her resistance to Trump's unprecedented second-term agenda.

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Asked about the poll, Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki, referring to Blakeman, told Fox News Digital, "No one wants a Trump puppet in the governor’s mansion who will cut their healthcare, raise their costs, and let ICE trample their rights."

"They trust Governor Hochul’s record of investing in public safety, lowering crime, and putting money back in their pockets – and they know she’ll fight for their families, not Trump," he added.

The poll, which was conducted by telephone and text-to-web collection, surveyed 1,144 likely voters in New York, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for core questions.