Ex-Biden official projected to win bid to unseat Mike Lawler in high-stakes House race

A former Biden administration aide is projected to defeat Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., in one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 election cycle.

Cait Conley, a military veteran who served on the White House National Security Council, will likely be coming to Congress next year after beating the two-term incumbent for the job, The Associated Press projected late Thursday.

Multiple forecasts suggested the seat would be a likely pickup for Democrats. 

THUNE WEIGHS NIGHTMARE SCENARIO FOR GOP AS DEMOCRATS THREATEN TO FLIP HOUSE

The race between Rep. Mike Lawler and Democrat veteran Cait Conley could decide the fate of the House of Representatives for the next two years. (Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Both parties poured enormous resources into the race for New York’s 17th Congressional District in the months before Election Day. It was widely seen as key to both parties’ quests to win the House majority.

The district, which sits just north of New York City, was won by Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.

TENSION ERUPTS DURING HOUSE MIDTERM DEBATE AS LAWLER FACT-CHECKS NEW YORK DEMOCRAT OPPONENT ON IMMIGRATION

Lawler spent much of the race walking a political tightrope between supporting President Donald Trump and positioning himself as an independent voice.

And the race itself was marked by bitter divisions on issues like immigration enforcement and taxes.

Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., speaks with President Donald Trump at Rockland Community College Fieldhouse, May 22, 2026, in Suffern, N.Y. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

DHS BOSS REVEALS OVAL OFFICE PLAN TO 'WITHHOLD FUNDING' FROM SANCTUARY CITIES AFTER AGGRESSIVE NEW YORK BUST

Among Lawler’s backers were the parents of Sheridan Gorman, a college student from his district who was killed in Chicago while she was out with friends. Gorman’s accused killer is an illegal immigrant who was previously arrested for shoplifting, but was released without a federal immigration detainer because of Chicago’s sanctuary city laws.

Lawler and Gorman's parents have pointed to her killing as proof that Democrat-backed sanctuary laws — which are active in New York as well — are deadly for Americans. He argued that Conley would do nothing to mitigate the effects of illegal immigration.

ARMY COMBAT VETERAN CHALLENGING MIKE LAWLER CALLS HEGSETH NATIONAL SECURITY 'HAZARD,' BACKS IMPEACHMENT

The family of 18-year-old Loyola University Chicago student Sheridan Gorman of Yorktown Heights, N.Y., who was allegedly fatally shot in Chicago in March by an illegal alien, speaks about their daughter and sister during a speech by President Donald Trump in Suffern, N.Y. (Pool/Fox News)

Conley, for her part, condemned Gorman’s killing and has said she is against illegal immigration, but she has not spoken out against sanctuary laws specifically.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Conley served as counterterrorism director on the White House National Security Council from 2021 to 2023 and spent the remainder of former President Joe Biden’s term as a senior advisor on election security at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

Fox News Power Rankings rated the district as "lean Democrat," while the Cook Political Report ranked it a toss-up.