How Will the Midterms Play Out? These Races May Provide Early Clues.

On Election Day, states where polls close and ballot counting begins early could offer the first concrete clues for how the rest of the night will go, with control of Congress on the line.

Here are some poll closures to watch in the first hours of election night. All times are Eastern.

6 p.m.: Much of Kentucky and Indiana

President Trump won Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District by 15 points in 2024, but its House race this year has been rated a tossup by nonpartisan election forecasters. If the Democratic candidate, Zach Dembo, a former federal prosecutor and Navy veteran, beats the Republican, Dr. Ralph Alvarado, a physician and former state senator endorsed by Mr. Trump, it would signal Democrats’ strength overall.

In Indiana’s traditionally conservative Fifth District, Representative Victoria Spartz, a Republican, won by about 19 points in 2024 and is favored to retain the seat on Tuesday, according to forecasters. But her lead has narrowed the area, where Democrats are usually not competitive. If the winner is her Democratic challenger, State Senator J.D. Ford, it could signal broader Democratic victories.

Democrats do not usually win votes from rural white voters in either district, and if one or both Democratic candidates prevail, that “would indicate that we are winning in a way that is going to translate across the country in many similar districts,” said CJ Warnke, a spokesman for the House Majority PAC, the biggest super PAC for House Democrats.

If a Republican wins either race, it could mean that their party might mitigate its losses elsewhere.

7 p.m.: Florida

Republican state lawmakers redrew several congressional districts to favor their party. Despite that, analysts say many of these districts have close races. If Democrats win in the Seventh, Ninth, 14th, 22nd or 25th Districts, it could bode well for them elsewhere.