Fox News Poll: GOP divisions shape Texas Senate race

President Donald Trump won the Lone Star state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but a new Fox News Poll of Texas registered voters suggests this year's Senate race is far less settled. Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has yet to fully unify the GOP despite the president’s endorsement in the GOP primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.

In addition, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve than worry Democratic challenger James Talarico is too extreme, and more Democrats than Republicans are extremely motivated to vote (by 7 points) and extremely interested in the midterms (by 6).

Those dynamics give Talarico a 3-point edge over Paxton (51% vs. 48%) in the Senate contest (within the survey’s margin of sampling error).

Talarico's advantage in the race grows to 6 points among both extremely motivated and extremely interested voters (53% vs. 47% in each group).

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Most independents (68%) and virtually all Democrats support Talarico (98%), while fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton (89%).

In part, that’s because one quarter of non-MAGA Republicans back Talarico (24%).

Paxton is the choice among White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters, regular worship attenders, men and voters ages 65 and older.

Some of Talarico’s best groups are Black voters, moderates, voters under age 30, Hispanic voters, women and voters with a college degree.

"Although Paxton dominated Cornyn in the GOP primary, that bruising contest left scars," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson. 

"He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that undoubtedly requires aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party’s far left." 

By a 12-point margin, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve as a senator than believe Talarico is too extreme (59% vs. 47%).

Twice as many Republicans are concerned about Paxton's character as Democrats are that Talarico is too extreme (36% vs. 17%).

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Still, about 8 in 10 Paxton and Talarico supporters say their backing is more about where the candidates stand on the issues than who they are as people. 

Trump received a 55% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable rating in the 2024 Texas Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey. Today, those numbers have flipped: 45% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable, for a minus-9 net negative rating.

Paxton garners a minus-6 net personal rating, 45% favorable vs. 51% unfavorable, while Talarico is in positive territory by 6 points, 49% vs. 43%.

Talarico is more popular than the Democratic Party while the GOP edges out Paxton. 

While both parties are viewed negatively, the GOP is underwater by only 2 points (48% favorable vs. 50% unfavorable), compared with the Democratic Party at minus-9 (45% vs. 54%).

Despite Texas being a border state, nearly 4 in 10 say inflation will be the most important issue to their Senate vote, while 2 in 10 say immigration and 1 in 10 say healthcare, political divisions and unemployment.

By more than a 2-to-1 margin, Texas voters say they are falling behind financially rather than getting ahead (35% vs. 16%). Half are holding steady.

In the race for governor, incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is favored by 1 point over Democrat Gina Hinojosa.

Part of Abbott's edge comes from a touch more crossover support: 12% of Talarico supporters back Abbott, while 9% of Paxton supporters back Hinojosa.

Hinojosa has the advantage among extremely motivated (+6) and extremely interested voters (+5).

Abbott has a net positive personal rating by a single point (50% favorable vs. 49% unfavorable). Hinojosa is in positive territory by 11 points (45% vs. 34%), although nearly 1 in 5 are unable to rate her.

Texas last elected a Democratic governor in 1990 (Ann Richards), a Democratic Senator in 1988 (Lloyd Bentsen), and a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976 (Jimmy Carter).

A closer look at the Hispanic electorate

Hispanic voters say their Senate pick will be driven by inflation, as roughly 4 in 10 say it will be the most important issue to their vote and another 4 in 10 say they’re falling behind financially. This mostly matches views among all Texas voters.

And as is the case with voters overall, there is an enthusiasm gap, as more Hispanic Democrats than Hispanic Republicans are interested and motivated to vote in the midterms.

Overall, Hispanic voters prefer Talarico by 18 points (59% vs. 41%).

Some 9% of Hispanic GOP voters crossover to support Talarico while 5% of Hispanic Democrats favor Paxton.

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In 2024, Trump topped former Vice President Kamala Harris among Hispanic voters in Texas by 1 point, according to the Texas FNVA survey (49% Harris vs. 50% Trump).

By 20 points, more Hispanic voters are concerned that Paxton lacks the character to serve as senator than feel Talarico is too extreme (61% concerned vs. 41%).

For the governor’s race, Hispanic voters back Hinojosa by 16 points in the new survey. By comparison, they preferred Beto O’Rourke over Abbott by 14 points in 2022.

More than half of Hispanic voters view Talarico (57% favorable), Hinojosa (53%), and the Democratic Party (53%) positively, while more than half have negative views of Paxton (56% unfavorable), Abbott (56%), Trump (61%), and the Republican Party (59%).

Conducted July 23-27, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,006 Texas registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (72) and cellphones (681) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (253). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. 

The survey includes an oversample of 296 Hispanic voters, bringing the sample size for that subgroup to 556 (±4). Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling errors, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data.