Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is up 2 points, but that’s still within the poll’s margin of error.

⁠Brazilian President ⁠Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, ⁠his main challenger, in a potential run-off ahead of October’s presidential election, a Datafolha poll has shown.

In poll results released Thursday, Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off. A previous Datafolha poll last week had ‌Lula leading Bolsonaro by 46 percent to 44 percent.

The result also represents a technical tie as it falls within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points.

In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with ⁠40 percent of the vote, followed ⁠by Bolsonaro (36 percent), Augusto Cury (5 percent), Ronaldo Caiado (4 percent) and Renan Santos (3 percent).

The previous poll showed the leftist president with 39 percent against the ⁠right-wing senator’s 36 percent.

Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of ⁠former President Jair Bolsonaro, who ⁠is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula.

Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil’s president.

If no candidate ‌wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance ‌to ‌a run-off.

Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and 23.

Earlier this week, two other polls showed similar results.

A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential run-off, versus 41 percent for Lula.

Meanwhile, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Lula receiving 46 percent of voter support, compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a potential run-off.